New York

Placeholder

Highest-power issue: Emergency orders that criminalize peaceful trade and assembly. Current recommendation: Toss-up.

1. Emergency orders that criminalize peaceful trade and assembly · power 100
2. Warrantless long-term location tracking · power 80
3. Forfeiture of property without a criminal conviction · power 64
4. Criminal penalties for peaceful home enterprise · power 18

Governor

Placeholder

The governor signs or vetoes statutes, issues and withdraws executive orders, appoints agency heads, and proposes the budget. The office does not write a criminal penalty on its own.

Emergency orders that criminalize peaceful trade and assembly

Placeholder scenario. During a declared emergency, an order makes it a crime to open a peaceful business or hold a peaceful gathering, with no separate violent act required. Sample entry for New York.

Harm: 4
Reach: 5
Office impact: 5
Power: 100

Conduct 4 and penalty severity 3 (Misdemeanor, up to a year) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 100 = 4 × 5 × 5.

Who can act

A governor does not write the statute. The office can veto a penalty, refuse to expand it, appoint the people who enforce it, and propose the budget that feeds it. Where the harm lives in an order or an agency rule, the governor's pen is the direct instrument. On an emergency order, the governor is often the author. Ending the order, narrowing it, or refusing to renew it is direct power over the penalty. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Lila Hartman's chance in this office, 1 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Lila Hartman is fictional.

2026 gubernatorial election

Toss-up

Placeholder governor race for the 2026 cycle in New York. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “longshot” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Toss-up — The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Leading score: Lila Hartman. (The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Lila Hartman

Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 1 · Score 40

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Limited-government placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Yves Rask

Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 5 · Score -65

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Enforcement-first placeholder.

Placeholder call for New York, Governor. The issue in this office is “Emergency orders that criminalize peaceful trade and assembly.” Editors mark a toss-up because Lila Hartman has the better liberty alignment, and a winnability of 1, which is below the floor the coalition will endorse. The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Lila Hartman and Yves Rask are fictional.

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Legislature

Placeholder

The legislature drafts the statute, sets the penalty and the mental state, funds the agencies, and can sunset an emergency power. On most of these issues it holds the text.

Warrantless long-term location tracking

Placeholder. Agencies collect a person's movements for weeks without a warrant and use the file to prosecute nonviolent offenses. The tracking is the intrusion; the downstream penalty is often a felony. Sample entry for New York.

Harm: 4
Reach: 5
Office impact: 4
Power: 80

Conduct 4 and penalty severity 4 (Felony imprisonment) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 80 = 4 × 5 × 4.

Who can act

The legislature writes the penalty, the mental state, and the budget. On the question of how severely the law punishes peaceful conduct, this is usually the office with the text in its hands. One seat matters only as part of a majority, which is what winnability has to reflect. On location tracking, the legislature can require a warrant by statute and suppress evidence taken without one. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Zora Tatum's chance in this office, 4 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Zora Tatum is fictional.

2026 legislative elections

Toss-up

Placeholder legislature race for the 2026 cycle in New York. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “close” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Toss-up — The lead sits inside the toss-up gap. Leading score: Zora Tatum. (The lead sits inside the toss-up gap.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Peter Alm

Cautious-reform placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score 40

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Cautious-reform placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Zora Tatum

Incumbent-leaning placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 46

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Incumbent-leaning placeholder.

Placeholder call for New York, Legislature. The issue in this office is “Warrantless long-term location tracking.” Editors mark a toss-up because the score gap between Zora Tatum and Peter Alm sits inside the toss-up threshold. The lead sits inside the toss-up gap. Zora Tatum and Peter Alm are fictional.

All calls for this state

Judiciary

Placeholder

Judges rule on warrants, constitutional limits, and how a penalty is applied. They do not rewrite a clear statute, and this scorecard does not ask them to.

Forfeiture of property without a criminal conviction

Placeholder. The state takes a car, a bank account, or a small business on the claim that the property was involved in a crime, without a conviction of the owner. Peaceful people lose the property that is the case. Sample entry for New York.

Harm: 4
Reach: 4
Office impact: 4
Power: 64

Conduct 5 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 64 = 4 × 4 × 4.

Who can act

Judges apply the text and the constitution. They can refuse an unreasonable search, limit a forfeiture, or strike a penalty that exceeds the charter. They cannot supply a mental state the legislature deleted. Office impact is high when the dispute is constitutional and low when the statute is plain. On forfeiture, judges decide innocent-owner claims and whether the procedure meets the constitution. They do not set the statute's default. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Wes Ives's chance in this office, 1 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Wes Ives is fictional.

2026 judicial elections

Toss-up

Placeholder judiciary race for the 2026 cycle in New York. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “longshot” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Toss-up — The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Leading score: Wes Ives. (The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Wes Ives

Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 1 · Score 25.6

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Limited-government placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Beth Lombard

Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 5 · Score -41.6

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Enforcement-first placeholder.

Placeholder call for New York, Judiciary. The issue in this office is “Forfeiture of property without a criminal conviction.” Editors mark a toss-up because Wes Ives has the better liberty alignment, and a winnability of 1, which is below the floor the coalition will endorse. The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Wes Ives and Beth Lombard are fictional.

All calls for this state

Attorney general

Placeholder

The attorney general decides appeals, civil enforcement, and often whether the state will defend a statute. Charging power over ordinary crimes may sit with county attorneys. The entry says so when that split matters.

Criminal penalties for peaceful home enterprise

Placeholder. A zoning rule makes it a misdemeanor to teach, repair, or sell from one's own home, with no nuisance and no unwilling neighbor required. Sample entry for New York.

Harm: 3
Reach: 3
Office impact: 2
Power: 18

Conduct 3 and penalty severity 3 (Misdemeanor, up to a year) blend 60/40 into harm 3. Power 18 = 3 × 3 × 2.

Who can act

An attorney general rarely rewrites a statute. The office decides which cases to bring, which appeals to pursue, which settlements to accept, and, in many states, whether to defend a statute at all. That is power over how a penalty is used, not over the fact that it exists. On home enterprise, the attorney general rarely files the citation. Impact is low unless the office is defending a statewide ban. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Paula Serrano's chance in this office, 4 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Paula Serrano is fictional.

2026 attorney general election

Endorse Paula Serrano

Placeholder attorney general race for the 2026 cycle in New York. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “clear” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Endorse Paula Serrano (The lead clears the toss-up gap.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Paula Serrano

Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 20.7

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Limited-government placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Alan Pryor

Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score -9

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Enforcement-first placeholder.

Placeholder call for New York, Attorney general. The issue in this office is “Criminal penalties for peaceful home enterprise.” Paula Serrano leads Alan Pryor after winnability weighting, with a winnability of 4 out of 5, and the gap clears the toss-up rule. The editorial call matches the formula. Paula Serrano is not a real candidate.

All calls for this state