Michigan

Placeholder

Highest-power issue: Felony penalties for peaceable firearm possession. Current recommendation: Endorse Paula Serrano.

1. Felony penalties for peaceable firearm possession · power 80
2. Forfeiture of property without a criminal conviction · power 80
3. Licensing barriers to harmless work · power 27
4. Criminal penalties for peaceful home enterprise · power 12

Attorney general

Placeholder

The attorney general decides appeals, civil enforcement, and often whether the state will defend a statute. Charging power over ordinary crimes may sit with county attorneys. The entry says so when that split matters.

Felony penalties for peaceable firearm possession

Placeholder scenario, not a claim about current state law. A non-prohibited adult faces a felony for possessing a firearm without a permission slip, or for a paperwork defect that involves no violence. Sample entry for Michigan.

Harm: 5
Reach: 4
Office impact: 4
Power: 80

Conduct 5 and penalty severity 4 (Felony imprisonment) blend 60/40 into harm 5. Power 80 = 5 × 4 × 4.

Who can act

An attorney general rarely rewrites a statute. The office decides which cases to bring, which appeals to pursue, which settlements to accept, and, in many states, whether to defend a statute at all. That is power over how a penalty is used, not over the fact that it exists. On a possession felony, the attorney general's share is appeals and, where the office has it, a statewide charging policy. Local prosecutors may still file the case. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Paula Serrano's chance in this office, 4 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Paula Serrano is fictional.

2026 attorney general election

Endorse Paula Serrano

Placeholder attorney general race for the 2026 cycle in Michigan. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “clear” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Endorse Paula Serrano (The lead clears the toss-up gap.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Paula Serrano

Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 92

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Limited-government placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Alan Pryor

Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score -40

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Enforcement-first placeholder.

Placeholder call for Michigan, Attorney general. The issue in this office is “Felony penalties for peaceable firearm possession.” Paula Serrano leads Alan Pryor after winnability weighting, with a winnability of 4 out of 5, and the gap clears the toss-up rule. The editorial call matches the formula. Paula Serrano is not a real candidate.

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Legislature

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The legislature drafts the statute, sets the penalty and the mental state, funds the agencies, and can sunset an emergency power. On most of these issues it holds the text.

Forfeiture of property without a criminal conviction

Placeholder. The state takes a car, a bank account, or a small business on the claim that the property was involved in a crime, without a conviction of the owner. Peaceful people lose the property that is the case. Sample entry for Michigan.

Harm: 4
Reach: 4
Office impact: 5
Power: 80

Conduct 5 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 80 = 4 × 4 × 5.

Who can act

The legislature writes the penalty, the mental state, and the budget. On the question of how severely the law punishes peaceful conduct, this is usually the office with the text in its hands. One seat matters only as part of a majority, which is what winnability has to reflect. On forfeiture, the legislature can require a conviction, put the burden on the state, and send the proceeds somewhere other than the agency that seized the property. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Peter Alm's chance in this office, 1 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Peter Alm is fictional.

2026 legislative elections

Toss-up

Placeholder legislature race for the 2026 cycle in Michigan. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “longshot” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Toss-up — The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Leading score: Peter Alm. (The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Peter Alm

Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 1 · Score 32

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Limited-government placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Zora Tatum

Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 5 · Score -52

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Enforcement-first placeholder.

Placeholder call for Michigan, Legislature. The issue in this office is “Forfeiture of property without a criminal conviction.” Editors mark a toss-up because Peter Alm has the better liberty alignment, and a winnability of 1, which is below the floor the coalition will endorse. The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Peter Alm and Zora Tatum are fictional.

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Judiciary

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Judges rule on warrants, constitutional limits, and how a penalty is applied. They do not rewrite a clear statute, and this scorecard does not ask them to.

Licensing barriers to harmless work

Placeholder. A person who braids hair, gives ordinary advice, or runs a one-chair trade has to buy a license designed for a different occupation, or face fines and a shutdown. Sample entry for Michigan.

Harm: 3
Reach: 3
Office impact: 3
Power: 27

Conduct 3 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 3. Power 27 = 3 × 3 × 3.

Who can act

Judges apply the text and the constitution. They can refuse an unreasonable search, limit a forfeiture, or strike a penalty that exceeds the charter. They cannot supply a mental state the legislature deleted. Office impact is high when the dispute is constitutional and low when the statute is plain. On licensing, judges hear constitutional challenges to a barrier that has no relationship to competence. Most applications still go through. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Beth Lombard's chance in this office, 4 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Beth Lombard is fictional.

2026 judicial elections

Toss-up

Placeholder judiciary race for the 2026 cycle in Michigan. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “close” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Toss-up — The lead sits inside the toss-up gap. Leading score: Beth Lombard. (The lead sits inside the toss-up gap.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Wes Ives

Cautious-reform placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score 13.5

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Cautious-reform placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Beth Lombard

Incumbent-leaning placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 15.5

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Incumbent-leaning placeholder.

Placeholder call for Michigan, Judiciary. The issue in this office is “Licensing barriers to harmless work.” Editors mark a toss-up because the score gap between Beth Lombard and Wes Ives sits inside the toss-up threshold. The lead sits inside the toss-up gap. Beth Lombard and Wes Ives are fictional.

All calls for this state

Governor

Placeholder

The governor signs or vetoes statutes, issues and withdraws executive orders, appoints agency heads, and proposes the budget. The office does not write a criminal penalty on its own.

Criminal penalties for peaceful home enterprise

Placeholder. A zoning rule makes it a misdemeanor to teach, repair, or sell from one's own home, with no nuisance and no unwilling neighbor required. Sample entry for Michigan.

Harm: 3
Reach: 2
Office impact: 2
Power: 12

Conduct 3 and penalty severity 3 (Misdemeanor, up to a year) blend 60/40 into harm 3. Power 12 = 3 × 2 × 2.

Who can act

A governor does not write the statute. The office can veto a penalty, refuse to expand it, appoint the people who enforce it, and propose the budget that feeds it. Where the harm lives in an order or an agency rule, the governor's pen is the direct instrument. On home enterprise, the governor's leverage is a preemption bill and the agencies that back local bans. The citation is usually local. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Yves Rask's chance in this office, 4 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Yves Rask is fictional.

2026 gubernatorial election

Toss-up

Placeholder governor race for the 2026 cycle in Michigan. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “close” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Toss-up — The leading score is too small to call. Leading score: Yves Rask. (The leading score is too small to call.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Lila Hartman

Cautious-reform placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score 6

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Cautious-reform placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Yves Rask

Incumbent-leaning placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 6.9

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Incumbent-leaning placeholder.

Placeholder call for Michigan, Governor. The issue in this office is “Criminal penalties for peaceful home enterprise.” Editors mark a toss-up because the leading score is too small to carry a name. The leading score is too small to call. Yves Rask and Lila Hartman are fictional.

All calls for this state