Since the method, not the mood
Strategic Liberty CoalitionPlaceholder data. Every candidate on this site is fictional. Scores demonstrate the method. They are not live election advice.
Highest-power issue: Emergency criminal penalties on peaceful trade. Current recommendation: Toss-up.
The governor signs or vetoes statutes, issues and withdraws executive orders, appoints agency heads, and proposes the budget. The office does not write a criminal penalty on its own.
Placeholder scenario for a large state. Reach is a 5. The better-aligned candidate cannot win.
Conduct 4 and penalty severity 3 (Misdemeanor, up to a year) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 100 = 4 × 5 × 5.
The governor holds the order. A candidate with no path to the office does not hold it. Winnability is the term that says so.
Placeholder. The governor appoints the boards that shut the work down. The legislature writes the category.
Conduct 4 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 3. Power 45 = 3 × 5 × 3.
Appointments and a veto are real. They are not the statute. Office impact is a 3.
Toss-up
Placeholder. The liberty-aligned slate has no credible path. That is the point of the example.
Formula: Toss-up — The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Leading score: Leona Markov. (The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor.)
Fictional candidate
Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 1 · Score 58
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. The right record and no path to office.
Fictional candidate
Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 5 · Score -123.5
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. Very likely to win, and opposed to narrowing either penalty.
Markov has the liberty record. Her winnability is a 1. The coalition does not endorse a candidate with no path, because an endorsement is a claim about a vote that can change the penalty. Harlow is worse on the issues and is not endorsed either. The call is a toss-up, and the residual moves are the ones in the essay on spending and plaintiff groups: fund the licensing case, and do not pretend a protest vote repealed the order. Both names are fictional.
The legislature drafts the statute, sets the penalty and the mental state, funds the agencies, and can sunset an emergency power. On most of these issues it holds the text.
Placeholder. Property taken without a conviction.
Conduct 5 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 80 = 4 × 4 × 5.
The conviction requirement is a statute. The legislature holds it.
Placeholder. Criminal and forfeiture-like shutdowns for working without a license in a harmless trade.
Conduct 4 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 3. Power 75 = 3 × 5 × 5.
The legislature writes the category and the penalty. This is the office that can repeal it.
Endorse Frances Bell
Placeholder. A favored reform slate where the office actually writes the penalty.
Formula: Endorse Frances Bell (The lead clears the toss-up gap.)
Fictional candidate
Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 178.3
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. Would repeal license crimes for harmless work and require a conviction for forfeiture.
Fictional candidate
Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score -77.5
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. Would keep both.
The governor's race is a toss-up because the better candidate cannot win. This one is not. Bell is favored, and the legislature writes both penalties. Editors endorse Bell. The contrast with the governor's race is intentional. She is fictional.
The attorney general decides appeals, civil enforcement, and often whether the state will defend a statute. Charging power over ordinary crimes may sit with county attorneys. The entry says so when that split matters.
Placeholder scenario. The attorney general defends a felony that has no violent element.
Conduct 5 and penalty severity 4 (Felony imprisonment) blend 60/40 into harm 5. Power 60 = 5 × 4 × 3.
The office can stop defending the felony. It cannot repeal it. A candidate with winnability 1 will not be the one who stops.
Toss-up
Placeholder long shot.
Formula: Toss-up — The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Leading score: Seth Marlow. (The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor.)
Fictional candidate
Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 1 · Score 24
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. Would stop defending the possession felony. Cannot win.
Fictional candidate
Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 5 · Score -39
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. Will keep defending it.
Same pattern as the governor's race, in a smaller office. Marlow's alignment is right and his winnability is 1. No endorsement. A plaintiff group can still challenge the felony. Marlow cannot, from this ballot. Fictional.
Judges rule on warrants, constitutional limits, and how a penalty is applied. They do not rewrite a clear statute, and this scorecard does not ask them to.
Placeholder. Neither judicial slate has a usable record. The issue is real. The ballot is not.
Conduct 4 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 3. Power 60 = 3 × 4 × 5.
Judges apply immunity. A blank record is not a lean, and the call should say non-positive rather than invent a reformer.
Toss-up
Placeholder. Two blank records.
Formula: Toss-up — No candidate would reduce the harm. Leading score: Daphne Cho. (No candidate would reduce the harm.)
No recorded alignments for this race.
Fictional candidate
Incumbent-leaning placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score 0
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. No record on immunity.
Fictional candidate
Incumbent-leaning placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score 0
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. No record on immunity.
Both scores are zero. A zero is not a lean toward reform. Editors mark a toss-up because no candidate would reduce the harm, not because the race is close. The issue stays on the card. The ballot does not answer it. Fictional slates.