Calls
Endorsements and toss-ups
A clear endorsement names a fictional candidate when the record and the odds both support it. A toss-up is the honest call when they do not. Every card has a reason. Where editors depart from the formula, the card says so.
1 endorsements · 3 toss-ups · filtered to CA
Toss-upPlaceholder
California · Governor
2026 gubernatorial election
No candidate endorsed
Formula: Toss-up — The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Leading score: Leona Markov.
Markov has the liberty record. Her winnability is a 1. The coalition does not endorse a candidate with no path, because an endorsement is a claim about a vote that can change the penalty. Harlow is worse on the issues and is not endorsed either. The call is a toss-up, and the residual moves are the ones in the essay on spending and plaintiff groups: fund the licensing case, and do not pretend a protest vote repealed the order. Both names are fictional.
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EndorsementPlaceholder
California · Legislature
2026 legislative elections
Endorse Frances Bell
Formula: Endorse Frances Bell
The governor's race is a toss-up because the better candidate cannot win. This one is not. Bell is favored, and the legislature writes both penalties. Editors endorse Bell. The contrast with the governor's race is intentional. She is fictional.
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Toss-upPlaceholder
California · Attorney general
2026 attorney general election
No candidate endorsed
Formula: Toss-up — The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Leading score: Seth Marlow.
Same pattern as the governor's race, in a smaller office. Marlow's alignment is right and his winnability is 1. No endorsement. A plaintiff group can still challenge the felony. Marlow cannot, from this ballot. Fictional.
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Toss-upPlaceholder
California · Judiciary
2026 judicial elections
No candidate endorsed
Formula: Toss-up — No candidate would reduce the harm. Leading score: Daphne Cho.
Both scores are zero. A zero is not a lean toward reform. Editors mark a toss-up because no candidate would reduce the harm, not because the race is close. The issue stays on the card. The ballot does not answer it. Fictional slates.
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