Since the method, not the mood
Strategic Liberty CoalitionPlaceholder data. Every candidate on this site is fictional. Scores demonstrate the method. They are not live election advice.
Highest-power issue: Convictionless forfeiture. Current recommendation: Toss-up.
The governor signs or vetoes statutes, issues and withdraws executive orders, appoints agency heads, and proposes the budget. The office does not write a criminal penalty on its own.
Placeholder scenario. An order makes a peaceful gathering a misdemeanor.
Conduct 4 and penalty severity 3 (Misdemeanor, up to a year) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 80 = 4 × 4 × 5.
The governor writes the order. Withdrawing it is the direct act. The legislature can limit the next one.
Endorse Sable Nguyen
Placeholder. A contest, not a formality.
Formula: Endorse Sable Nguyen (The lead clears the toss-up gap.)
Fictional candidate
Cautious-reform placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score 40
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. Would withdraw the emergency order. The rest of the record is thin.
Fictional candidate
Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score -40
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. Would keep emergency criminal penalties.
Equal odds, opposite directions. Nguyen would withdraw the order. Pike would keep it. The lead is clear even though Nguyen's record is only a one-step lean. Editors endorse her and describe the lean accurately. Fictional candidates.
The legislature drafts the statute, sets the penalty and the mental state, funds the agencies, and can sunset an emergency power. On most of these issues it holds the text.
Placeholder. Property is taken without a conviction of the owner.
Conduct 5 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 80 = 4 × 4 × 5.
The legislature writes the conviction requirement. Both slates in this sample say they would. The question is not direction. It is whether the records differ enough to name one.
Placeholder. Teaching or repairing from one's home is a misdemeanor, with no nuisance required.
Conduct 3 and penalty severity 3 (Misdemeanor, up to a year) blend 60/40 into harm 3. Power 36 = 3 × 3 × 4.
The legislature can preempt local criminal penalties and leave nuisance law standing. Cities write many of the citations underneath.
Toss-up
Placeholder. Both slates would cut the same penalties. Electability is the only gap.
Formula: Toss-up — The lead sits inside the toss-up gap. Leading score: Camille Ortiz. (The lead sits inside the toss-up gap.)
Fictional candidate
Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 133.4
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. Favored, and on the record for a conviction requirement and home-work preemption.
Fictional candidate
Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score 116
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. The same substantive record, less favored to win.
Ortiz and Hale would both end convictionless forfeiture and the home-work misdemeanor. Ortiz is more winnable. The score prefers her by less than the toss-up gap. Naming a favorite would invent a difference the records do not support. Editors call it a toss-up and mean it. Both are fictional.
Judges rule on warrants, constitutional limits, and how a penalty is applied. They do not rewrite a clear statute, and this scorecard does not ask them to.
Placeholder. Weeks of location data are used in nonviolent cases without a warrant.
Conduct 4 and penalty severity 4 (Felony imprisonment) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 60 = 4 × 3 × 5.
Judges decide the warrant question in the cases they hear. The legislature can codify the rule if the courts will not.
Endorse Joanna Frey
Placeholder. One slate would require a warrant. The other has no record.
Formula: Endorse Joanna Frey (The lead clears the toss-up gap.)
Fictional candidate
Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 2 · Score 42
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. An outside chance, with a clear warrant record.
Fictional candidate
Incumbent-leaning placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 0
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. Favored, with nothing on the warrant question.
Frey's winnability is a 2, the floor of what this coalition will endorse. She is not favored. She is also the only slate with a record, and the record is a full commitment to the warrant rule. Shen is more likely to win and has said nothing. Editors endorse Frey and tell the reader the win is an outside chance, not a plan. Both are fictional.
The attorney general decides appeals, civil enforcement, and often whether the state will defend a statute. Charging power over ordinary crimes may sit with county attorneys. The entry says so when that split matters.
Placeholder. The attorney general decides which forfeiture judgments to defend.
Conduct 5 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 48 = 4 × 3 × 4.
Appeal and settlement posture changes how often the penalty is used. It does not rewrite the statute. Office impact is a 4.
Endorse Vera Langley
Placeholder forfeiture docket.
Formula: Endorse Vera Langley (The lead clears the toss-up gap.)
Fictional candidate
Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 55.2
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. Would stop defending convictionless forfeitures.
Fictional candidate
Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 2 · Score -16.8
Fictional placeholder. Not a real person. An outside chance, and on the wrong side of the docket.
Langley is favored and would take the state off the convictionless docket. Marsh would not, and he is a long shot besides. The call is clear. She is a fictional placeholder.