Since the method, not the mood
Strategic Liberty CoalitionPlaceholder data. Every candidate on this site is fictional. Scores demonstrate the method. They are not live election advice.
Calls
A clear endorsement names a fictional candidate when the record and the odds both support it. A toss-up is the honest call when they do not. Every card has a reason. Where editors depart from the formula, the card says so.
3 endorsements · 1 toss-ups · filtered to AZ
2026 gubernatorial election
Endorse Sable Nguyen
Formula: Endorse Sable Nguyen
Equal odds, opposite directions. Nguyen would withdraw the order. Pike would keep it. The lead is clear even though Nguyen's record is only a one-step lean. Editors endorse her and describe the lean accurately. Fictional candidates.
2026 legislative elections
No candidate endorsed
Formula: Toss-up — The lead sits inside the toss-up gap. Leading score: Camille Ortiz.
Ortiz and Hale would both end convictionless forfeiture and the home-work misdemeanor. Ortiz is more winnable. The score prefers her by less than the toss-up gap. Naming a favorite would invent a difference the records do not support. Editors call it a toss-up and mean it. Both are fictional.
2026 judicial elections
Endorse Joanna Frey
Formula: Endorse Joanna Frey
Frey's winnability is a 2, the floor of what this coalition will endorse. She is not favored. She is also the only slate with a record, and the record is a full commitment to the warrant rule. Shen is more likely to win and has said nothing. Editors endorse Frey and tell the reader the win is an outside chance, not a plan. Both are fictional.
2026 attorney general election
Endorse Vera Langley
Formula: Endorse Vera Langley
Langley is favored and would take the state off the convictionless docket. Marsh would not, and he is a long shot besides. The call is clear. She is a fictional placeholder.