Kentucky

Placeholder

Highest-power issue: Felony penalties for peaceable firearm possession. Current recommendation: Toss-up.

1. Felony penalties for peaceable firearm possession · power 100
2. Qualified immunity when officials injure nonviolent people · power 60
3. Forfeiture of property without a criminal conviction · power 24
4. Licensing barriers to harmless work · power 24

Legislature

Placeholder

The legislature drafts the statute, sets the penalty and the mental state, funds the agencies, and can sunset an emergency power. On most of these issues it holds the text.

Felony penalties for peaceable firearm possession

Placeholder scenario, not a claim about current state law. A non-prohibited adult faces a felony for possessing a firearm without a permission slip, or for a paperwork defect that involves no violence. Sample entry for Kentucky.

Harm: 5
Reach: 4
Office impact: 5
Power: 100

Conduct 5 and penalty severity 4 (Felony imprisonment) blend 60/40 into harm 5. Power 100 = 5 × 4 × 5.

Who can act

The legislature writes the penalty, the mental state, and the budget. On the question of how severely the law punishes peaceful conduct, this is usually the office with the text in its hands. One seat matters only as part of a majority, which is what winnability has to reflect. On a possession felony, the legislature chooses whether peaceable possession is a crime at all, and whether the penalty is a felony. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Lila Hartman's chance in this office, 4 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Lila Hartman is fictional.

2026 legislative elections

Toss-up

Placeholder legislature race for the 2026 cycle in Kentucky. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “close” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Toss-up — The lead sits inside the toss-up gap. Leading score: Lila Hartman. (The lead sits inside the toss-up gap.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Alan Pryor

Cautious-reform placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score 50

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Cautious-reform placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Lila Hartman

Incumbent-leaning placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 57.5

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Incumbent-leaning placeholder.

Placeholder call for Kentucky, Legislature. The issue in this office is “Felony penalties for peaceable firearm possession.” Editors mark a toss-up because the score gap between Lila Hartman and Alan Pryor sits inside the toss-up threshold. The lead sits inside the toss-up gap. Lila Hartman and Alan Pryor are fictional.

All calls for this state

Judiciary

Placeholder

Judges rule on warrants, constitutional limits, and how a penalty is applied. They do not rewrite a clear statute, and this scorecard does not ask them to.

Qualified immunity when officials injure nonviolent people

Placeholder. An official uses force or a seizure against a person who was not violent, and immunity ends the civil case before a jury sees it. The severity score treats the lost remedy as a property-level harm, not a prison term. That is an editorial judgment, and it is labeled as one. Sample entry for Kentucky.

Harm: 3
Reach: 4
Office impact: 5
Power: 60

Conduct 4 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 3. Power 60 = 3 × 4 × 5.

Who can act

Judges apply the text and the constitution. They can refuse an unreasonable search, limit a forfeiture, or strike a penalty that exceeds the charter. They cannot supply a mental state the legislature deleted. Office impact is high when the dispute is constitutional and low when the statute is plain. On qualified immunity, judges are the office that applies and can limit the doctrine. This is one of the few issues where the court holds the pen. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Carl Ebner's chance in this office, 1 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Carl Ebner is fictional.

2026 judicial elections

Toss-up

Placeholder judiciary race for the 2026 cycle in Kentucky. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “longshot” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Toss-up — The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Leading score: Carl Ebner. (The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Carl Ebner

Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 1 · Score 24

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Limited-government placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Paula Serrano

Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 5 · Score -39

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Enforcement-first placeholder.

Placeholder call for Kentucky, Judiciary. The issue in this office is “Qualified immunity when officials injure nonviolent people.” Editors mark a toss-up because Carl Ebner has the better liberty alignment, and a winnability of 1, which is below the floor the coalition will endorse. The better-aligned candidate is below the winnability floor. Carl Ebner and Paula Serrano are fictional.

All calls for this state

Attorney general

Placeholder

The attorney general decides appeals, civil enforcement, and often whether the state will defend a statute. Charging power over ordinary crimes may sit with county attorneys. The entry says so when that split matters.

Licensing barriers to harmless work

Placeholder. A person who braids hair, gives ordinary advice, or runs a one-chair trade has to buy a license designed for a different occupation, or face fines and a shutdown. Sample entry for Kentucky.

Harm: 3
Reach: 4
Office impact: 2
Power: 24

Conduct 3 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 3. Power 24 = 3 × 4 × 2.

Who can act

An attorney general rarely rewrites a statute. The office decides which cases to bring, which appeals to pursue, which settlements to accept, and, in many states, whether to defend a statute at all. That is power over how a penalty is used, not over the fact that it exists. On licensing, the attorney general is usually a lawyer for the board, not the author of the rule. Impact stays low unless the office drives an enforcement campaign. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Beth Lombard's chance in this office, 4 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Beth Lombard is fictional.

2026 attorney general election

Endorse Beth Lombard

Placeholder attorney general race for the 2026 cycle in Kentucky. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “clear” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Endorse Beth Lombard (The lead clears the toss-up gap.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Beth Lombard

Limited-government placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 27.6

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Limited-government placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Peter Alm

Enforcement-first placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score -12

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Enforcement-first placeholder.

Placeholder call for Kentucky, Attorney general. The issue in this office is “Licensing barriers to harmless work.” Beth Lombard leads Peter Alm after winnability weighting, with a winnability of 4 out of 5, and the gap clears the toss-up rule. The editorial call matches the formula. Beth Lombard is not a real candidate.

All calls for this state

Governor

Placeholder

The governor signs or vetoes statutes, issues and withdraws executive orders, appoints agency heads, and proposes the budget. The office does not write a criminal penalty on its own.

Forfeiture of property without a criminal conviction

Placeholder. The state takes a car, a bank account, or a small business on the claim that the property was involved in a crime, without a conviction of the owner. Peaceful people lose the property that is the case. Sample entry for Kentucky.

Harm: 4
Reach: 2
Office impact: 3
Power: 24

Conduct 5 and penalty severity 2 (License, property, or forfeiture) blend 60/40 into harm 4. Power 24 = 4 × 2 × 3.

Who can act

A governor does not write the statute. The office can veto a penalty, refuse to expand it, appoint the people who enforce it, and propose the budget that feeds it. Where the harm lives in an order or an agency rule, the governor's pen is the direct instrument. On forfeiture, the governor can veto a wider statute and appoint the officials who file the petitions. The governor cannot, alone, require a conviction. Placeholder analysis, not a description of any current officeholder.

Winnability is Evan Brooks's chance in this office, 4 of 5. It is a property of the leading score, not of the statute. Evan Brooks is fictional.

2026 gubernatorial election

Toss-up

Placeholder governor race for the 2026 cycle in Kentucky. Candidates are fictional. Alignments come from the “close” profile so the mix of calls is reproducible.

Formula: Toss-up — The lead sits inside the toss-up gap. Leading score: Evan Brooks. (The lead sits inside the toss-up gap.)

Each segment is issue power times alignment. Alignment runs from −1 to +1. Right of zero, the candidate would narrow the penalty. Left of zero, they would keep or expand it. Fictional candidates.

Fictional candidate

Zora Tatum

Cautious-reform placeholder · Winnability 3 · Score 12

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Cautious-reform placeholder.

Fictional candidate

Evan Brooks

Incumbent-leaning placeholder · Winnability 4 · Score 13.8

Fictional placeholder. Not a real candidate. Incumbent-leaning placeholder.

Placeholder call for Kentucky, Governor. The issue in this office is “Forfeiture of property without a criminal conviction.” Editors mark a toss-up because the score gap between Evan Brooks and Zora Tatum sits inside the toss-up threshold. The lead sits inside the toss-up gap. Evan Brooks and Zora Tatum are fictional.

All calls for this state